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Northwest Michigan Q2 2021

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5 County Condo Summary

95

Available Homes
-67% from last year

334

YTD Closed Sales
+77% from last year

$272K

YTD Avg Sale Price
+8% from last year

$91M

YTD Closed Volume
+91% from last year

Monthly Activity

All

YTD ’21YTD ’20’21 v ’20
Available95288-67%
Closed33418977%
Months Supply0.94.6-81%
Avg. Sale Price$272k$215k8%
$ Vol (million)914791%

$10k – $200k

YTD ’21YTD ’20’21 v ’20
Available31113-73%
Closed1408761%
Months Supply0.73.9-83%
Value Change-9%

$200k – $400k

YTD ’21YTD ’20’21 v ’20
Available2490-73%
Closed1388073%
Months Supply0.53.4-85%
Value Change12%

$400k – $600k

YTD ’21YTD ’20’21 v ’20
Available1533-55%
Closed291593%
Months Supply1.66.6-76%
Value Change4%

$600k+

YTD ’21YTD ’20’21 v ’20
Available2552-52%
Closed277286%
Months Supply2.822.3-88%
Value Change13%

Although inventory levels are less than half of what they were a year ago and monthly new pendings have been slipping since early June, YTD closed sales are up 77% through the first half of 2021. Expect that lead to shrink through the balance of the year as recent pendings are now moving at a slower pace than either 2019 or 2020. While the number of $400k to $600k sales has nearly doubled, values in that price range have been flat. In the over-$600k price range, first half sales have jumped from 7 last year to 27 this year with a 13% increase in price per square foot. In a typical year, condo sales peak in mid-summer. This year, new pendings and sales peaked in March and April. They’ve been tailing off since.

 

5-County Waterfront Summary

142

Available Homes
-58% from last year

309

YTD Closed Sales
+44% from last year

$718K

YTD Avg Sale Price
+56% from last year

$222M

YTD Closed Volume
+124% from last year

Monthly Activity

All

YTD ’21YTD ’20’21 v ’20
Available142336-58%
Closed30921544%
Months Supply1.44.7-71%
Avg. Sale Price$718k$461k56%
$ Vol (million)22299124%

$10k – $350k

YTD ’21YTD ’20’21 v ’20
Available1671-77%
Closed86105-18%
Months Supply0.62.0-72%
Value Change23%

$350k – $600k

YTD ’21YTD ’20’21 v ’20
Available3394-65%
Closed835941%
Months Supply1.24.8-75%
Value Change12%

$600k – $900k

YTD ’21YTD ’20’21 v ’20
Available2968-57%
Closed6728139%
Months Supply1.37.3-82%
Value Change15%

$900k+

YTD ’21YTD ’20’21 v ’20
Available65104-38%
Closed7323217%
Months Supply2.713.6-80%
Value Change33%

Waterfront sales got off to an early start this year. Although inventory levels have been less than half of what they were a year ago, new pendings peaked in May and have been gradually dropping since. Through the first half of 2021, YTD closed sales were up 44%, but that number will shrink through the next few months as this year’s third quarter numbers settle compared to the huge third quarter COVID rebound numbers of last year. Average sale price jumped to over $700k by June and over $750k by July. There are three times as many over-$900k sales this year than there were a year ago, and price per square foot of those high-end sales is up 33%—more than any other price range. to last month and 12% compared to last year. June closed sales dropped slightly from May and new pendings were also down—a predictor that July sales may drop again. Second quarter and YTD sales were short of last year’s mark, but values have been up enough to nearly balance sold volume with last year. A 21% inventory increase in $200-400k price range helped make it the only price band without a YTD decline in sales. The rate of value increases continues to slow—especially in the upper price ranges. YTD price per square foot is up just 1% for closed sales priced over $400k. Oakland County’s waterfront market got off to a slow start with 22% fewer sales and an 8% decline in average sale price through the first half of the year.

 

5-County Non-Waterfront Summary

316

Available Homes
-48% from last year

838

YTD Closed Sales
+12% from last year

$320K

YTD Avg Sale Price
+26% from last year

$268M

YTD Closed Volume
+41% from last year

Monthly Activity

All

YTD ’21YTD ’20’21 vs ’20
Available316604-48%
Closed83874712%
Months Supply1.12.4-53%
Avg. Sale Price$320k$254k26%
$ Vol (million)26819041%

$10k – $200k

YTD ’21YTD ’20’21 v ’20
Available58166-65%
Closed191285-33%
Months Supply0.91.7-48%
Value Change5%

$200k – $350k

YTD ’21YTD ’20’21 v ’20
Available115211-45%
Closed37532914%
Months Supply0.91.9-52%
Value Change23%

$350k – $500k

YTD ’21YTD ’20’21 v ’20
Available61126-52%
Closed1629669%
Months Supply1.13.9-71%
Value Change31%

$500k+

YTD ’21YTD ’20’21 v ’20
Available88110-20%
Closed11037197%
Months Supply2.48.9-73%
Value Change-2%

While the pandemic increased buyer demand for non-waterfront homes, lack of inventory (less than half of what it was a year ago) continues to challenge buyers. Through June, sales were up 12% compared to last year. Through July, they were up 2%, but down 10% compared to 2019. While over-$500k sales saw the biggest jump with triple the number of closed sales, values in the upper price ranges have been flat­—just shy of even with last year. The $350k to $500k price range is a sweet spot—sales are up 69% and price per square foot up 31%. Expect third quarter sales to drop off compared to spring and early summer months and third quarters of previous years.

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